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2018 PECOTA Projections: Dodgers To Win NL Pennant, Tie With Astros For Best Record In Majors

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Indicative of a roster that still features plenty of talent and depth, the Los Angeles Dodgers are forecasted to win an unprecedented sixth consecutive National League West title, repeat as NL champions, and tie with the Houston Astros for the best record this season at 99-63, based on the 2018 PECOTA projections released by Baseball Prospectus.

Aside from the Dodgers, the module has the Chicago Cubs as the only other NL club that will reach 90 wins. The Washington Nationals are projected to just miss that mark at 89-73. The Cubs and Nationals were pegged as NL Central and East champions, respectively.

For all their offseason noise, the San Francisco Giants are forecasted to go 79-83, good for third place in the NL West. The Arizona Diamondbacks, at 87-75, are slated to finish behind the Dodgers in the division.

After being tabbed for the worst record in the Majors last season, which instead was shared by the Giants and Detroit Tigers, the San Diego Padres pass that honor to the the Kansas City Royals.

PECOTA have the Royals going 66-96, edging the Miami Marlins (67-95) for the worst record in baseball. PECOTA projections view the NL Central as the closest race in the league, with the St. Louis Cardinals closing out the season five games behind the Cubs at 85-77.

As for the American League, the reigning World Series champion Astros are one of three teams PECOTA believes will win at least 96 games. The Cleveland Indians (98-64) were crowned the AL Central champions, and the New York Yankees (96-66) champions of the East.

No AL division race is predicted to be closer than the eight games the Boston Red Sox will finish back of the Yankees with an 88-74 record.

The Dodgers have now been projected by PECOTA to win more than 90 games in six consecutive seasons. Last season was the first time they surpassed the annual win total set by the Baseball Prospectus forecast.

Year PECOTA Actual W-L
2013 93-69 92-70
2014 98-64 94-68
2015 97-65 92-70
2016 94-68 91-71
2017 97-65 104-58
2018 99-63 TBD
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